J.P.摩根-亚太地区-金融业-东盟金融业2020年开始的17次会议纪要-2020.1.9-23页.pdf

1、Asia Pacific Equity Research09 January 2020ASEAN Financials17 meeting notes to start 2020Asia-ex BanksHarsh Wardhan Modi AC(65) 6882-Bloomberg JPMA MODI J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited/ J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) LimitedAnurag Rajat, CFA(65) 6882 J.P. Morgan Securities Si

2、ngapore Private Limited/ J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) LimitedDaniel Andrew Tan, CFA(63-2) 8554-J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.Gaurav Khandelwal(91-22) 6157 J.P. Morgan India Private LimitedJidapa Chirawattanakarn(66-2) 684-JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) LimitedVanice Siew(60-3) 271

3、8-JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)See page 20 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may

4、 have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.We hosted 17 companies over the last two days at JP Morgan ASEANFinancials day. The takeaways were positive for Philippines

5、 and Indonesia, in-line for Singapore and Vietnam and a tad worrisome for Thailand and Malaysia. We recommend staying long SoE banks in Indonesia, select Philippine and Malaysian banks. Singapore banks are our preferred funding sources, while large Thai banks are facing regulatory headwinds to profi

6、tability. Vietnam banks investment thesis is intact.Detailed meeting notes are on p2-18; please let us know where shall we follow-up with conversations, models, data, or any other help. Detailed 2020 outlook here. Philippines macroeconomic conditions and growth prospects appear good. Major risk is f

7、rom higher oil prices, where the second order effect may lead to tighter liquidity. CoF has come off and pricing power is holding. We recommend staying in the sector and prefer BPI, PNB and EW. Thailands economic conditions appear tough, with limited signs of improvement. High loan demand at Sawad,

8、and its ability to command pricing power suggests lack of credit risk at banks. This view was reaffirmed by KBanks 2020 guidance. Thai Banks are navigating a) slow GDP gr; b) fee clamp-down by BoT and c) FRS9 implementation. Any rally should be seen as an opportunity to trim. Vietnam banks investmen

9、t thesis is on-track, with banks delivering high RoEs and mid-teens loan gr. High visibility on nominal GDP and current account should support earnings and credit growth. We like TCB, ACB and VCB. Malaysia lacks catalysts, and our stock picks are bottom-up rather than top-down. RHB is a high-convict

10、ion OW while HLBK offers trading upside. MAY is a play on value unlocking. PBK is a funding source. Indonesia is on track for significant improvement on policy and infrastructure spending. Progress on regulatory and legal developments (eg: omnibus law) is a key positive. The meetings confirm our vie

11、w that post FRS9, credit costs would come down sharply, or at least guidance would head lower. Singapore banks should deliver in-line with our expectations for 4Q19/2020. However, we are wary of any material change in guidance post FY2019 results, largely due to HKs macroeconomic conditions. We beli

12、eve conditions need to improve in HK before SG banks can re-rate.每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 2Asia Pacific Equity Research09 January 2020Harsh Wardhan Modi(65) 6882-DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)LoansLow to mid-

13、single digit revenue gr; Loan gr same as 2019Housing loans should stabilize, which have been shrinking in the last 2-3qtrs; Mortgage # of bookings have been goodWeakness only in trade loans from HK/China, other than that HK/China is performing in line with the groupNIM7bps lower NIM guidance in 2020

14、 based on 1 rate cut and 50-60% pass through of SOR/SIBOR; but need to watch rates. Funding costs to remain flat to negative; FD and CP/wholesale would be drifting lower; AY lower due to intense competition; front book yields are lower than back bookNon-IIFee income gr of double digit y/y; Cash mana

15、gement is benefiting from more mandatesFee gr in last few quarters supported by credit card and WM; ANZ acquisition has helped; WM also supported by search for yields;IB is good as low rates encourage companies to issue more debtSG generally seen AuM gr with inflowsAQ and credit costsCredit cost at

16、lower end of 20-25bps, dont see that changing in 2020; through the cycle credit costs coming downMacroeconomic variables within ECL framework will be adjusted and it should lead to adjusted factors in weaker economic gr in HKCapital managementCET1 guidance is at 12.5-13.5%; Currently higher due to slower loan gr and higher AQ issuesConsidering a few options to return capital to shareholders - buyback, higher dps or special dividends etc; Progressive dividend policy implies dps becomes floor for