J.P.摩根-亚太地区-科技行业-亚洲科技行业美国超大型服务器触底反弹CPU供应紧张对近期pc造成压力-2020.1-32页.pdf

1、Asian TechnologySee the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm mayhave a confli

2、ct of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making theirinvestmentdecision.Asia Pacific Equity ResearchJanuary 2020Albert Hung AC+886 2 2725- J.P.Morgan Securities(Taiwan)Limited US hyperscale servers bottoming out,

3、CPU supply tightness weighs on near-term PCsGokul Hariharan AC+852 2800- J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limited 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。1Asia tech valuations(Alberts coverage)Source:Bloomberg,J.P.Morga

4、n estimates,Company data.Note:Market data as of Jan 9,2020 close.1Y forward data used for companies with FY ending in March for like-to-like comparisons.Past results are not an indicator of future performance.Gokul Hariharan is the lead analyst for Lenovo.Price Price targetMkt.capReturnDividend yiel

5、d(%)CompanyTicker(LC)(LC)($,mn)RatingYTDFY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21EFY20ELenovo992 HK5.437.008,398 OW4%7.2 6.9 1.7 1.5 26%23%5.3%Quanta2382 TT63.172.08,140 OW-2%13.911.51.8 1.7 13%15%6.0%Pegatron4938 TT67.472.05,878 OW-1%11.711.21.1 1.1 10%10%7.1%Asus2357 TT235.0250.05,830 OW2%12.411.31.0 1.0

6、 8%9%4.3%Wiwynn6669 TT688.0690.04,011 OW8%16.713.55.1 4.3 32%35%3.4%Compal2324 TT18.816.12,767 UW0%10.410.50.8 0.8 7%7%5.9%Wistron3231 TT28.7024.402,724 N1%12.911.81.0 1.0 8%9%6.1%PEPBROE(%)2Industry section30.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%2017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q3L

7、enovoHPAsusDell-5%-1%-3%3%0%-1%3%10%3%6%3%-5%4%8%7%-17%-10%-7%-9%-4%-9%-10%-15%-8%-5%-3%-2%-15%-8%-5%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%1Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q19Commercial PC YoYConsumer PC YoYPCs mild PC declines in 2019 due to consumer weakness and CPU shortagePC market in

8、 slightly declines in 2019Strong enterprise PC shipment growth with strength in Asia ex-China.Consumer PC demand remained weak due to lengthened replacementcycle.Intel CPU shortage also weighed on PC shipment in 1Q19/4Q19.Ongoing Industry consolidation bodes well for top 3 vendorsDell/HP/Lenovo have

9、 continued gaining market share in 2019 thanks tohigher exposure to commercial PCs and better operation efficiency.Asus achieved flattish yoy revenue in 3Q19 thanks to restructuringmeasures and share gains in gaming market.Compals NB shipment outperformed peers by 10%+thanks to m/s gains.Improved PC

10、 margins thanks to deeper-than-expected componentprice,better product mix and more benign competitive landscapeDell/HP indicated pricing discipline in 3Q19 lead to better margins.Quicker-than-expected component price declines led to PC margin upside.Gaming,commercial,thin-and-light PC models have co

11、ntinued to grow,resulting in better industry product mix.We have seen rising attached rates of service revenue in PC(ex:DaaS).Source:Gartner.Quarterly commercial/consumer PC shipment yoy%Source:Company data,J.P.Morgan estimates.Quarterly PC margin trend(HP/Dell/Lenovo/Asus)402004006008001000F1Q16F4Q

12、16F4Q17F4Q18F4Q19Windows 10 Monthly Active Devices(mn)0%2%-1%-10%-15%-10%-5%0%5%01020304020152016201720189M19China Enterprise PC Shipment(Mn)YoY(%)-11%-1%-8%-6%-3%-1%-1%-2%-2%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%0501001502002503003502013201420152016201720182019E 2020E 2021EPC Shipments(mn unit)Y/YPCs prolonged c

13、ommercial upgrade cycle due to CPU shortage,flattish 2020 outlook Intels PC CPU shortage more impactful into 4Q19 and likely to sustaininto 2Q2014nm Comet Lake NB CPU supply has been lower-than-expected,partlydue to better-than-expected demand,which leads to supply tightness of14nm Whiskey Lake NB C

14、PU as OEMs look for replacements.Intel pushed out the 14nm Comet Lake desktop CPU launch from 1Q20 to2Q20.We expect Intels CPU shortage in midrange to low-end desktops toweigh on channel motherboard makers.Intels 10nm NB CPU volumes remain limited in 4Q19,and the moremeaningful volumes will come in

15、next year.Enterprise tailwinds to sustain into 1H20,with China serving as thenext leg of upgradesChina commercial PC shipment have declined by 10%yoy in 9M19 and islikely to be the next leg of Win-10 upgrade.Likely hardware supply chain localization in ChinaWe see potential headwinds for U.S.hardwar

16、e OEMs in China in the nextfew years,given the trend of supply chain localization.Lenovo and Huawei could potentially gain market shares against Delland HPE.US OEMs represent 20-25%of the total PC market in China.Source:Gartner.China enterprise PC shipment and yoy trendSource:J.P.Morgan estimates.PC market and yoy growthWindows 10 monthly active devicesSource:Company data.5Radeon RX 5000 SeriesRX 5700 XT AERX 5700 XTRX 5700RX 5600 XTRX 5500 XTLaunch Price(USD)449399349279169Current Price(USD)449