摩根士丹利-中国-医疗保健行业-两家互联网医疗玩家研究政策推动下不断演变的商业模式-2020.3.25-64页.pdf

1、Yolanda.HSean.WLaurence.TAlexis.YEthan.DAttractiveMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Yolanda HuEQUITY ANALYST+852 2848-5649Sean WuEQUITY ANALYST+852 3963-0755Laurence TamEQUITY ANALYST+852 2239-1753Alexis YanRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+852 2239-7953Ethan DingRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+852 3963-0546China HealthcareAsia Paci

2、ficIndustryViewChina HealthcareChina Healthcare|Asia Pacific Asia PacificInitiating on Two InternetHealthcare Players:Evolving BizModels Amid Policy TailwindsAli Health and Ping An Healthcare are leading players in theonline realms of drug sales and patient consultations in China.Both companies aim

3、to build closed-loop ecosystems withmultiple offerings,and are backed by powerful parents.Initiateboth at OW.We are very constructive on Chinas internet healthcare industry:Chinasinternet healthcare market generated Rmb20bn in 2018 sales.China presentsdistinctive opportunities,owing to the countrys

4、large internet/smartphone-adeptpopulation base and advancing modern technologies.Internet healthcare notonly addresses some of the current systems pain points,but it can also exploitthe power of big data to drive more effective business decisions and propel newbusiness models.The gradual rollout of

5、reimbursement coverage for onlineconsultations and potential relaxation of online prescription sales in the next 6-12 months broaden the playing field for internet healthcare companies,andshould drive robust growth over the next few years.The Covid-19 outbreak notonly spurs near-term demand for onli

6、ne healthcare services,but should alsoprompt favorable regulatory development and broader public awareness ofinternet healthcare services in the medium to long term.Industry landscape/key players:In Asia Primer:The Era of Internet Healthcare,we map out the industrys various subsegments,discuss oppor

7、tunities and risks,examine valuation,and introduce the key players.The industry includes bothindividual-facing internet healthcare services(e.g.,online consultations,drug e-commerce,consumer healthcare),and business-oriented technologies(e.g.,AI-based drug discovery and early disease diagnosis,clini

8、cal decision supportsystems and IoMT internet of medical things).Initiate Ali Health and Ping An Healthcare,each at OW:We project 74%/103%sales/adjusted NI CAGRs,F3/19-22,for Ali Health,driven by robust GMV growthfor both self-operated and platform segments,rising commission rate helped byplanned as

9、set injections from Alibaba Group,more contribution from innovativebusiness,and high operating leverage.Potential relaxation of online prescriptionsales is key potential stock price catalyst.For Ping An Healthcare,we thinkfurther re-rating will be driven by more corporate partnerships,ramp-up ofsubs

10、cription-based sales,and margin improvement helped by AI.We project a33%revenue CAGR,2019-22,and break-even in 2022.Risks to our outlookinclude unfavorable regulatory shifts,slower-than-expected consumer adoption,and irrational competition.Exhibit 1:Ratings and price targetsAli Health(0241.HK)Rating

11、OWPrice targetHK$14.5Ping An Healthcare(1833.HK)RatingOWPrice targetHK$74.0Source:Morgan Stanley ResearchMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As aresult,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect t

12、he objectivity ofMorgan Stanley Research.Investors should considerMorgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of thisreport.+=Analysts employed by non-U

13、.S.affiliates are not registered withFINRA,may not be associated persons of the member and may notbe subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subjectcompany,public appearances and trading securities held by aresearch analyst account.1March 25,2020 11:05 AM GMT每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告

14、；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。Order of Preference&Comps TableAli Health(0241.HK,OW,PT HK$14.5)Ali Health is one of the largest pharmaceutical e-commerce companies in China,by grossmerchandise value(GMV).Pharmaceutical e-commerce is one o

15、f the highly promisingsub-segments within the internet healthcare space,given its clear monetization model,low penetration,and high scalability.Continued prescription outflow from hospitals,and potential relaxation of prescription sales online(80%of all drug sales in China)would be game-changing cat

16、alysts for online drug sellers.An asset injection fromAlibaba Group,announced on 6th-Feb,would,if approved,entitle Ali Health to earn ahigher commission from FY21 onward,improving OPM by 0.6ppt in FY22,we estimate.While the government projects are largely unprofitable now,we see significant value inthe data generated,as well as in potential synergies with Ali Healths core e-commercebusiness.Although 2HFY20 growth may be subdued because of the Covid-19 disruption,Ali Healths structural growth sto