摩根士丹利-全球-可持续产业-COVID-19减碳延迟但并不是取消-2020.3.31-40页.pdf

1、Jessica.AVictoria.IJonny.WLucy.BMark.SAllison.BMORGAN STANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONAL PLC+Jessica Alsford,CFAEQUITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7425-8985Victoria IrvingEQUITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7425-6651Jonathan WalkerEQUITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7677-0479Lucy BeauvalletRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+44 20 7677-2470MORGAN STANLEY&CO.LL

2、CMark SavinoEQUITY STRATEGIST+1 212 761-8576Allison BinnsEQUITY STRATEGIST+1-212-761-0530SustainabilitySustainability|Global GlobalCOVID-19:DecarbonisationDelays,Not DerailmentThere may be some short-term delays in climate policy.Butdecarbonisation remains an attractive investment theme forthe decad

3、e ahead,with a green recovery likely.Glimmers of green remain during the COVID-19 crisis.COVID-19 is the clearpriority;policymakers and corporates are dealing with the immediate economicimpacts of social distancing.We note though that decarbonisation was always a10-year+trend.Some delays to new poli

4、cy,but reassurance on long-term plans.The EU GreenDeals Farm to Fork strategy has already been delayed,and we see some risk thatCORSIA could be pushed back due to pressures facing the airline industry.Butthe EU Council has argued for a green recovery,and China has indicated thatrecovery plans could

5、include green infrastructure.Green policy in the US remainsuncertain;but President Trump reportedly has mentioned the idea ofinfrastructure in a Phase 4 relief bill.Autos regulation is already changing behaviour.Over 80%of EU and NAproduction is now shut down,but the costs of meeting 2020 EU legisla

6、tion havelargely been borne,and we dont expect 2025 and 2030 limits to be removed.Balance sheets remain strong enough to finance the EV rollout,while sharp cutsto 2020 capex could result in the cancellation of ICE rather than BEV projects.Economics drive Renewables.Renewable economics remain competi

7、tive in mostmajor markets,driving higher renewable energy mix over the next decade.Shortterm,there may be some project delays,but the impact of lower power demandon the sector should be manageable and not materially impact capex plans.Biofuel demand remains;margins likely to fall.Customer demand for

8、 biofuelshas remained strong.But,prices have fallen and costs have increased due tolower feedstock availability during the current crisis.Regulation and corporatecommitments to reduce emissions will drive long-term growth;sustainableaviation fuel may be tempered by the challenges facing airlines.Oil

9、 and Gas shift away from fossil fuels could accelerate.Our analysts seedownside risk to Big Oil dividends which could free up cash that could beredeployed as a growing Renewables capex budget.In addition,low oil pricesprovide an opportunity for governments to unwind fossil fuel subsidies,whileeconom

10、ic stimulus is likely to be used to boost clean energy programs.14 Decarbonisation stocks to buy.We highlight companies that offer investorsexposure to the decarbonisation theme.While some have outperformed thebroader market(in line with ESG indices),they have all fallen by 16-46%over thelast month,

11、thus providing more attractive entry points.Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As aresult,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity ofMorgan Stanley Research.Investors should con

12、siderMorgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of thisreport.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered withFINRA,may not be associa

13、ted persons of the member and may notbe subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subjectcompany,public appearances and trading securities held by aresearch analyst account.1March 31,2020 11:01 PM GMT每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部

14、学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。ContributorsNameTitleTelephoneEmailMORGAN STANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONAL PLC+Jessica Alsford,CFAEQUITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7425-8985Jessica.AVictoria IrvingEQUITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7425-6651Victoria.IJonathan WalkerEQUITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7677-0479Jonny.WLucy BeauvalletRESEARCH

15、 ASSOCIATE+44 20 7677-2470Lucy.BMORGAN STANLEY&CO.LLCMark SavinoEQUITY STRATEGIST+1 212 761-8576Mark.SAllison BinnsEQUITY STRATEGIST+1-212-761-0530Allison.BMORGAN STANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONAL PLC+Sasikanth Chilukuru,CFAEQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425-3016Sasikanth.CCedar Ekblom,CFAEQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425-46

16、23Cedar.EHarald C HendrikseEQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425-6240Harald.HRobert PulleynEQUITY ANALYST AND COMMODITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7425-4388Robert.PMartijn Rats,CFAEQUITY ANALYST AND COMMODITY STRATEGIST+44 20 7425-6618Martijn.RKatie Self,Ph.D.EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425-2177Katie.SMORGAN STANLEY&CO.LLCStephen C ByrdEQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761-3865Stephen.BEthan C Ellison,CFAEQUITY ANALYST+1 212 296-5124Ethan.EJoshua C PokrzywinskiEQUITY ANALYST+1-212-761-4645Josh.PMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jack LuEQUITY