1、 Vietnam Market Strategy 2020 Outlook:Solid macro but lacking catalysts Strategy|Strategy Figure 1:Vietnams 12M forward P/E at four-year low Source:Refinitiv Datastream,Credit Suisse estimates Another year of solid growth:Headline growth is once again expected to remain strong with 6.8%GDP growth in
2、 2020E(ADB),the highest in ASEAN.Broader fundamentals remain solid with robust FDI flows,rising current account surplus,stable inflation and record high FX reserves.Consumption continues to remain a key growth driver(+7%YoY)with retail sales growth hitting a 5-year high of 11.8%in 2019.Risks have ho
3、wever emerged in the form of spike in inflation(5%in Dec)amid surging swine price while further slowdown in global growth and slow pace of infra investment could impact growth outlook.Valuations more attractive but investability a challenge:Vietnam market is trading at 12MF P/E of 13.5x(a four-year
4、low but close to its historical average)and at the lower end of Asian peers despite the third highest EPS growth(20%in 2020E)behind Korea and India.While valuations appear attractive,investability remains a challenge amid a slow SOE divestment process and limited progress on Foreign Ownership Limit(
5、FOL)reforms as 6 out of the 13 most liquid stocks have no FOL room.Increasing push from the PM in recent months as may lead to a pickup in SOE divestments in 2H20,and there remains low visibility on any meaningful progress in addressing FOL issues.Prefer stocks tilted toward discretionary spending:W
6、e dont expect any material multiple re-rating in 2020 and continue to prefer stocks linked with higher discretionary spending in line with the structural growth trend in the economy.Our top picks include VRE,VHM,MWG and VPB.We have also leveraged Credit Suisse HOLT,our proprietary equity analytical
7、and valuation tool where PNJ,KBC and REE screen well.Key risks include(i)intensification of the anti-corruption drive,(ii)re-emergence of US-China trade tensions and/or measures extending to Vietnam,and(iii)slower pace of infrastructure investment.16 January 2020 Equity Research Asia Pacific|Vietnam
8、 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be awa
9、re that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Research Analysts Farhan Rizvi,CFA 65 6212 3036 farhan.rizvicredit- Ha Ngo 65 6212 8456 ha.ngocredit- 每日
10、免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。16 January 2020 Vietnam Market Strategy 2 Focus charts and table Figure 2:Real GDP growth to remain upbeat in 2020 Figure 3:Robust FDI flows driving strong export growth Source:GSO,As
11、ia Development Bank,Credit Suisse estimates Source:GSO,CEIC,World Bank Figure 4:P/E at the lower end of range regionally(2020E)Figure 5:With the third highest EPS growth(2020E)Source:I/B/E/S,Credit Suisse estimates Source:I/B/E/S,Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6:CS Vietnam Top picks Company Ticker C
12、losing price Rating Target price Available FOL Mkt cap(US$bn)P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Dividend yield(%)P/B(x)(VND)(VND)(%)20E 21E 20E 21E 20E 21E 20E 21E Vincom Retail VRE.HM 33,750 O 40,000 16.1 3.3 22.7 19.0 13.3 11.1 0.0%0.0%2.4 2.1 Vinhomes JSC VHM.HM 86,300 O 111,300 34.1 12.2 9.0 7.6 10.8 6.4 0.0%2.0
13、%3.0 2.3 Mobile World Investment MWG.HM 113,900 O 156,000 0.0 2.2 10.1 8.6 6.4 4.9 1.3%1.8%3.0 2.3 VPBank VPB.HM 21,150 O 27,500 0.0 2.2 6.2 5.8 NM NM 0.0%0.0%1.0 0.9 Source:Company data,Refinitiv Datastream,Credit Suisse estimates 16 January 2020 Vietnam Market Strategy 3 2020 Outlook:Solid macro b
14、ut lacking catalysts Another year of solid growth Vietnams real GDP grew at 7.0%in 2019,the highest in ASEAN and above the governments target of 6.8%.Industrial sector(36%contribution)and services(39%)continue to remain the key drivers with the share of agriculture steadily declining to 14%in 2019(f
15、rom 15%in 2018 and 22%a decade ago).Household consumption(two-third of nominal GDP)continues to hold up well(+7.2%YoY in 2019)with the momentum likely to continue in 2020E.On the external front,Vietnam has clearly emerged as a key beneficiary of the US-China trade tension reflected by 8%export growt
16、h in 2019 resulting in a US$11.1 bn trade surplus and a current account surplus of US$8.0 bn(3%of GDP).As a result,Vietnams share of global merchandise exports has risen to 1.35%in 2019E(2018:1.25%).Higher trade surplus coupled with robust FDI flows(US$20.4bn)has propelled forex serves to a record high US$79 bn as of Dec-19.The government is targeting 6.8%real GDP growth in 2020E,and expects to control inflation below 4%(2019:2.0%),implying low-teen nominal GDP growth.Figure 7:Real GDP growth li
