1、The Future of the Last-Mile EcosystemJanuary 2020Transition Roadmaps for Public-and Private-Sector Players每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。World Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerla
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3、 system.3The Future of the Last-Mile EcosystemExecutive summary 4Context:Unparalleled growth in last-mile transport 6 Urbanization:Space as the scarcest resource 7 E-commerce has a rapidly growing customer base 7 New categories move online and new business models emerge 7 Faster delivery is the new
4、normal 8 Delivery technologies transform the last mile 8 E-commerce has an impact on both people and goods transport 9Base case:Emerging challenges for the ecosystem 10 Congestion,emissions and delivery cost:Key challenges if no effective intervention takes place 10 Urban freight has a disproportion
5、ately high impact 12 Nascent city activities and interventions 12Last-mile interventions 13 Interventions grid:Overview of 24 prioritized interventions 13 Last-mile simulation:Quantified impact of interventions 13Transition scenarios:Recommendations to ecosystem players 20 The transition scenarios w
6、ith different target functions 20 Timeline for implementation 22 Public-and private-sector collaboration for accelerated impact 22 Set-up of city platforms 22 Robust,harmonized regulatory environment 23 Effective use of data and analytics 24Contributors 25Acronyms 25Endnotes 26Contents4The Future of
7、 the Last-Mile EcosystemExecutive summaryThere has never been a time of greater change for the“last mile”.Consumers order more things online,expecting more control and faster deliveries.Disruptive technologies,such as droids and drones,are shaking up entire delivery chains.Emerging tech players such
8、 as Uber Freight and Postmates are changing the dynamics of the competitive landscape.However,these developments also have a downside:Inner cities are struggling with traffic congestion and air pollution due to the increasing number of delivery vehicles,their emissions and second-lane parking.Some c
9、ities predict that,if no interventions are made,inner-city traffic will be seriously disturbed in the next three years.These developments are not surprising,but they are challenging because they are not linear.Rather,they are interwoven in complex ways that reinforce their speed and magnitude.This p
10、oses new questions to last-mile ecosystem players:Who is the competitor and who is the partner?Which disruptive technologies and delivery chain innovations should be prioritized over others?Which regulatory city interventions offer maximum impact?What will be the role of data and advanced analytics
11、in the future?This report presents an integrated perspective on the future of the last-mile delivery ecosystem,which was developed jointly by the World Economic Forum,McKinsey&Company,the World Business Council for Sustainable Development(WBCSD),Leaseplan and more than 20 public-and private-sector p
12、artners who contributed related data,expertise and case studies.The aim of our advanced analytics-based congestion simulation and quantitative modelling is to inform last-mile ecosystem players strategy discussions through a solid fact base,to encourage public-private partnerships and to accelerate
13、the development and implementation of effective interventions.In the first chapter,we describe the context of urban last-mile delivery,focusing on the unparalleled rise of e-commerce and technological advancements.We then offer a base-case scenario that,without effective intervention,describes the i
14、mpact of e-commerce on overall traffic volume,related congestion,emissions and additional qualitative factors of influence such as customer convenience and competitive dynamics.Next,the report puts forward an ambitious vision for the future of urban freight,describing and quantifying interventions f
15、or both private and public players along two city archetypes a suburban,sprawling metropolitan area such as Los Angeles,and dense inner-core metropolitan areas such as London and Singapore.In closing,the report calls for immediate action,and recommends how cities and companies can implement effectiv
16、e transitions within the next one to three years.5The Future of the Last-Mile EcosystemContext:Unparalleled growth in last-mile transport In the past decade,e-commerce has risen significantly.From 2014 to 2019,e-commerce sales ratios nearly tripled globally.1 This trend has been fuelled by a multitude of different factors:urbanization and the increasing purchasing power of the middle class,an increasing customer base worldwide,a widening range of products that can be purchased online and the eme
